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Your Investmo June Wrap-Up
Q2 Ends with Gains — Here’s What Q3 Could Bring
MARKET RECAP
📈 Markets Close Out Q2 on a High Note
As we close the books on Q2, the markets tiptoe into July with mixed momentum. The major U.S. indices were relatively flat this week, as investors waited for key inflation data and more clarity from the Fed. Tech held strong, energy cooled off, and small caps struggled for direction.
S&P 500: +0.3% this week
Nasdaq: +0.7%
Dow Jones: -0.2%
10-Yr Treasury: Hovering around 4.21%
MARKET NEWS
📈 Whats Moving Markets?
💸 Fed Watch: Dovish Whispers Get Louder
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the door is open to rate cuts, though the timeline remains data-dependent. Markets are currently pricing in one 25 bps cut in September, with additional easing expected into early 2026 if labor markets cool.
“We are well past peak inflation and can afford to be more flexible going forward.” – Powell at last week’s forum
What to watch: Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s June Jobs Report — both critical for the rate-cut path.
🏦 Bank Stress Tests Pass — Financials Gain
The Fed’s annual stress test results were released last week, and all major U.S. banks cleared the bar. This paves the way for higher dividends and stock buybacks, which boosted the financial sector late in the week.
Winners: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley all rallied between 2%–4% post-announcement.
🤖 Tech Marches On: Nvidia, Micron, Apple
Micron (MU) beat earnings expectations on surging AI-driven memory chip demand. Shares are up 10% in the last 5 days.
Nvidia (NVDA) continues to flirt with a $4 trillion market cap — it’s now the most valuable company in the world.
Apple (AAPL) hit an all-time high Friday, buoyed by excitement over its rumored AI-first iPhone this fall.
🌎 Global Highlights
China is prepping for a stimulus-heavy July policy meeting. Investors expect infrastructure and real estate support.
Europe’s inflation is proving sticky. The ECB is likely to pause rate cuts until late summer.
Oil prices have stabilized after the Israel-Iran ceasefire. WTI Crude is around $66/barrel.
🔮 Looking Ahead to Q3
Major Catalysts This Week:
FOMC Minutes (Wed, July 3) — clues on internal Fed debate
June Jobs Report (Fri, July 5) — key labor data that could sway policy direction
Q2 Earnings Preview — reporting season begins mid-July with big banks
Investor Sentiment:
Markets are cautiously bullish. Volatility remains low, but the path forward depends heavily on macro data confirming a soft landing scenario.
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WHATS HOT
🚀 In the Spotlight:
Apple (AAPL) hit a new all-time high, buoyed by bullish AI expectations and rumors of a September “AI-first” iPhone launch.
Micron (MU) surged after earnings beat and strong guidance on memory chip demand.
Nike (NKE) dropped 6% Friday after weak China sales and cautious forward guidance.
WHAT TO DO
Key Strategies to follow
Bullish consensus from Wall Street
Morgan Stanley targets S&P 500 at ~6,500, citing solid earnings and multiple 2026 cuts.
Other strategists (JPM, BofA, Wells Fargo, GS) forecast gains (+5–6%), though timing on cuts and tariff risks vary .
Take note of key catalysts
Mid‑week FOMC minutes may tip rate-cut odds.
Friday’s U.S. jobs report could shake fixed-income and equity sentiment.
Watch for macro shifts
BofA warns of late summer labor weakness followed possibly by aggressive cuts (up to 75 bps from Sept) if jobs deteriorate
Inflation trends—especially PCE readings—will guide market expectations.